Would it be a good strategy to buy lottery scratchers when there are no top prizes remaining? Once the top prize is gone, the odds of winning it will be zero. Many state lotteries allow games to continue even if no one has a chance to win the top prize. But maybe the game offers still more prizes that you can win?
Some games may still offer many other prizes, and your odds of winning money haven’t changed with the handful of top prizes no longer in the pool. But realistically, if the $1 million prize is already taken, would you turn your nose up at a $50,000 prize?
Strategies for Winning Lottery Scratchers
There is no sure way to win money with lottery scratchers, as the outcome is determined by chance and the odds of winning vary for each game. However, some strategies that people use to increase their chances of winning include:
- Choose games with the best odds of winning, as different games have different odds of winning based on how many prizes have been claimed already.
- Look for scratchers with a higher payout ratio, the percentage of total sales that is returned to players as prizes.
- Buy multiple scratchers at once, as this increases your chances of winning.
How to Choose the Best Scratchers
This website helps you do numbers 1 and 2 – our scratcher game rankings help you choose the game to buy for the best odds, before you put your money down. The data we provide tells you which games no longer offer top prizes.
For number 3, it’s up to you to buy the number you can afford. But we recommend you buy a string of tickets, as your strategy can take advantage of the statistical probability in a normal bell curve. You only need to buy enough tickets equivalent to two standard deviations from the mean probability of winning a profit prize. And you’ll have given yourself a 98% chance of landing at least one prize. Our rankings tell you exactly how many tickets that would be.
Should You Buy a Lottery Scratcher with No Top Prizes?
Back to the strategy of buying scratcher games with no top prizes remaining:
When top prizes are gone, the payout ratio, which is the percentage of total sales that is returned to players as prizes, can be lower. Lower payout ratios mean that less of the money spent on the scratchers goes back to players as prizes.
But again, don’t we only care whether we ourselves win a prize? I’ll take any prize as a win! Maybe these games can have better odds of winning something, over games where the top prize waits to be claimed.
As of this writing 1/28/2023, we post data for eight states and the District of Columbia. Here’s a breakdown of the average probability of winning a profit prize – more than the cost of the ticket – by state depending on whether the top prizes remain:
| State | No Top Prize Remaining | Top Prizes Remaining |
| Arizona | N/A | 15.1% |
| California | 11.3% | 15.8% |
| DC | 13.6% | 15.8% |
| Maryland | 12.9% | 15.8% |
| Missouri | 15.6% | 12.8% |
| New Mexico | 14.0% | 15.9% |
| New York | 12.6% | 13.3% |
| Oklahoma | 11.8% | 14.2% |
| Virginia | 15.1% | 15.8% |
| Average Total | 13.4% | 14.9% |
So in fact, your odds of winning a profit prize are better if the top prizes are still unclaimed. It may be that these are games still new to the public, and there are just more tickets remaining with any prize! For almost every state, the probability of winning more than you paid for the scratcher is higher than if the top prizes are gone.
The notable exception Missouri, where the odds of winning a profit prize are 2.8 percentage points higher for games with no top prizes than for games where the top prizes remain. If you live in Missouri, you may want to rank by those scratchers without top prizes.
It is a better strategy to check the odds of winning and the payout ratio before buying lottery scratchers. You can find this data on our scratcher rankings pages, one for each state. Also, set a budget and stick to it, gamble responsibly and within your means. Don’t spend more that you can pay within your paycheck.